The Price of Poker

Price of Poker

Mid stages of a tournament, we’re on the flop holding Ks 8s, which we’d called from the big blind, and we saw a pretty flop, As 2s 6h. We’ve got the nut flush draw and our opponent has just moved all in, we put him on top pair, therefore we have 9 spades to catch, approximately a 2/1 hand. We ask the dealer how much then we add on the raise, blinds and antes pre and we work out if we are getting the 2/1 price we need to call.

Pot odds will dictate our decision, if the price is 2/1 or better, we call, if the price is less than 2/1, we pass.

But what if the dealer refused to count our opponents stack and in fact concealed it, just stating that it wasn’t for all our chips and we’d have to make the decision based on that.

Everyone would agree, that was an appalling decision by the dealer. Poker is a game of incomplete information, but not being told how much your decision to call will cost you, that’s not the information that should be incomplete.

In tournament poker our buy in is made up of two amounts of money, the cash that goes into the prize pool which we are playing for and hoping to win back, not only our own contribution but that of many others. The other amount is the tournament fee, the rake, the juice, the cut, the take, the vig. This is money that the players will never see again but it’s money that compensates the bricks and mortar casinos for hosting us, it’s the money that pays for the staff and the dealers who allow us to play this wonderful game. It’s made clear what this is with the buy in format £100+£10; £100 goes to the prize pool, £10 to the organisers.

Myself and most other UK players are used to this fee being 10%, and for this fee to be clearly stated up front:

UKIPTs £700+£70 and £1,000+£100 for this season’s events.
GPS £400+£40.
25/25 series £200+£20.

When we look at bigger buy in events like EPTs, high rollers and super high rollers, this fee is advertised as approximately 6% for 5k buy ins, 3% for 10k and 2% for 25k, 50k and 100k buy ins.

However, a growing trend by some casinos and tours is to include the registration fee with the buy in. The recent Sky UKPC had a straight £1,000 buy in and previously the WPT500 and WPT Main at Dusk Till Dawn had £500 and £3,000 buy ins.

This resulted in the £1,000 buy in being £900+£100, the £500 being £450+£50 and the £3,000 being £2,700+£300. A price increase on the usual 10%, where we actually pay as much as 11.1%. But more importantly, a pricing structure that seems to have been designed purely to hide this higher than normal fee. Possibly with the intention of confusing the average punter, the majority of whom won’t read the small print, after all if the buy in is £1,000 and the registration fee is £100, 100 is 10% of 1,000, right? But £100 is not 10% of £900.

Combine this with a one million guaranteed prize pool, make the numbers published on the Hendon Mob match the advertised guarantee rather than the actual amounts given out as prizes and we end up with something that fits a marketing strategy and a squeeze on players but doesn’t accurately represent the total money charged to play or the total paid out.

WPT 500 UKPC

A similar lack of transparency that has been the hallmark of the World Series of Poker. It’s simply not immediately clear how much you’re paying towards a prize pool and how much is paid in tournament fees. They don’t advertise a breakdown, you either know because you’ve worked out prize pools and payouts from previous years, or you’re in the dark about how much of the money goes to the prize pool and how much is our fee for playing.

To a lesser extent, some criticism can be levelled at PokerStars events. An asterisk and small print reveals that 3% of EPT & UKIPT prize pools will be withheld for staffing costs. This makes a £1,000+£100 UKIPT Nottingham buy in really a £970+£130. A 10% fee becomes 13.4%. A €5,000+€300 EPT Malta buy in becomes a €4,850+€450. A 6% fee becomes 9.27%.

These numbers are published (in small print) and most regulars know them, but along with the events mentioned above, for players, it is as clear as mud how much we will actually pay to participate. We wouldn’t tolerate a dealer not giving us the chip count of an all in player, we wouldn’t tolerate a menu in a restaurant with no prices or a supermarket that hides what the goods cost. The normal operation of a marketplace is that the provider of a service makes his price known to the consumer and the consumer consents to purchase the service at that price. If he doesn’t think the price represents good value, he doesn’t buy the goods or service.

Any attempt to hide the true price is angle shooting. As the consumers/players, as we become aware of this, we are rightly suspicious of their motives. Trust and respect are damaged and that will inevitably lead to ill feeling and resentment.

Poker needs to be profitable to the service providers, the price we pay, if it’s reasonable, isn’t my issue. My issue is that the price we actually pay is higher than advertised, higher than what we are led to believe. For poker to thrive, the providers need to have a sustainable business model and if the price needs to be 11.1% or 13.4%, then that is what it needs to be, but a fair and transparent marketing and advertising of that pricing model is essential for continued goodwill.

It needs to be said, I would rather pay 13.4% for UKIPT staffed events than 10% for lesser skilled staff. I’ve played in some good and some bad card rooms and UKIPT/EPT staff are head and shoulders above the standard of anywhere else I’ve played. From the tour manager, to TDs and floor staff, to dealers and staff at buy in desks and the information desk, they are quite simply the best in the business. Having played in some poorly organised tournaments, I know PokerStars provide a premium service and I’m happy to pay more for it.

Equally, Dusk till Dawn is a jewel in the UK poker landscape. Rob Yong and Simon Trumper are rightly highly respected and admired for their years of relentless work. Time after time putting their money where their mouth is, creating huge guaranteed prize pools, stepping in to save events and giving the live UK poker scene the solid foundation it has.

When poker pros from around the world are asked what their favourite card room is, huge numbers of them talk about a converted warehouse on an industrial estate in the East Midlands. There’s nowhere else I’d rather play cards.

And there’s no question that both PokerStars and Dusk till Dawn have given good value to UK players. Both have had significant amounts of overlay for events they’ve organised in the past few years. Overlay is the shortfall where an event guarantees a prize pool, say 1 million, but the event has insufficient entries to generate the million and the organisers make up that shortfall, effectively giving money to the players.

There is no question that they give great value and provide a fantastic service to the poker community, but they sometimes fall a little short in transparency for fees. Before buying in, a player should know the fee they are paying to play. This isn’t always the case.

The Price of Poker

Price of poker table
The web site for WPT Nottingham has a table which states 10% of the prize pool is withheld as a registration fee. That is accurate but it is an accounting trick. To think the most pedantic, nerdiest, group of maths geeks ever assembled on the planet wouldn’t see through this, it’s an insult. We sniff out bullshit narratives for a living, this bluff isn’t getting through. We know that the real rake is the amount taken as a percentage of the buy in that goes to the prize pool, so as per the tables above for WPT, that’s 11.1%.

WPT table

http://www.worldpokertour.com/Shared/Tournaments/Seasons/Season_XIII/partypoker_WPT_UK.aspx

Another recent trend that is becoming more widespread is the inclusion of entries to a further tournament, a satellite within a tournament. My first experience of these was my local Edinburgh Genting casino, who used to add 2 entries into a larger buy in upcoming seasonal tournament. These seats were added at a cost to the casino and represented extra value for the players. This extra incentive, this bonus value, was appreciated and added an extra dimension at the final tables where the final few pay jumps held extra value.

Then in June last year, a seasonal special event, the Summer Sizzler was announced, it was to have a £25k guaranteed prize pool, but part of that prize pool was x5 £600 packages to Newcastle GPS. Rather than added value given by the casino, the cost of these packages was to be taken from the prize pool. In effect, the casino was deciding for you how to spend £600 of the money you would win (£440 seat, £160 cash for travel/hotel).

I wasn’t going to be able to play Newcastle GPS so I was then faced with the prospect of playing a tournament where up to 12% of the prize pool I was contributing to was of no use to me. But even if I had been available to play, I didn’t feel it was right that the venue could dictate to the players how the prize pool, money that belongs to the players, should be spent. Why not include x5 60” plasma TVs for the top 5 finishers, paid for from the prize pool? It’s the same thing!

The way it is worded appears to be deliberately ambiguous, “£25,000 guaranteed, including x5 £600 GPS packages”. Many players reading that believed that the casino was including the seats, topping up the value of the tournament to encourage people to play. So clearly as a cynical marketing ploy, it is effective.

I completely understand why a casino would want to offer payout structures like this. It is entirely in their interests to get players to pre-spend part of their winnings on entries to events at their venue. But it is not transparent and it is not the casino’s money, it is our money, the prize pool belongs to the players.

The Scottish poker community has a fantastic social media presence, in thanks wholly to Martin J. Smith, who runs Poker In Edinburgh, Poker In Glasgow and ScottishPoker.net. His websites and FaceBook pages have given us a really good sense of community and let us come together to project our voice.

The majority of responses on social media to these ‘included seats’ were negative, many interesting points were raised and anomalies in the structure highlighted. However I need to give full credit to the casino, this event went ahead as planned with some minor changes, but since then there has not been a repeat of the casino dictating how players’ money is spent.

This feels like a victory for player power but that was only possible because the casino recognised it has to take the players with it and keep them onside. Fair play to Genting Edinburgh for doing that.

Some of the key arguments used against this ‘satellite inside a tournament’ structure were:

● The prize pool belongs to the players, casinos should not dictate how it is spent.

● Being raked twice, £10 rake for initial entry, if you win a seat, £40 rake is taken from that.

● You may not be able to attend the event, so lose £440 value.

● If the seat is transferable, and you sell it, you will likely have to sell at less than face value. Seats were changing hands at £350-£400, a big difference over winning your own £440 cash.

● Tournament pace and structure is altered because there is a double bubble, 1 for the cash prizes and 1 for the x5 £600 packages.

● In this event the pay jump from 6th to 5th was greater than the pay jump from 5th to 4th or the pay jump from 4th to 3rd. Pay jumps should never be smaller than the previous pay jump.

● It is in effect, a compulsory ‘last longer’ bet, where the £100+£10 buy in is really an £85+£10+£15 ‘last longer’.

● The terminology “included seats” is just not transparent or understood properly by the majority of players.

Although we haven’t seen this repeated in Scotland, elsewhere in the UK it seems to be a regular occurrence. Tournaments regularly run with 10%, 20% and as much as 30% of the prize pool withheld, converted into seats for upcoming events, which ensure the prize pool, the players’ money, never leaves that casino. You have been forced to spend it on their upcoming tournaments. I feel it’s an appalling abuse. The casino’s role should solely be to hold onto the prize pool while we play, it should have no say in how that money is spent. That money is ours and they are taking liberties with it.

Where this happens in an extreme way is Dusk till Dawn. There are 2 recent examples I’d like to highlight.

Firstly in February and March this year, the Sky Poker UKPC mini £100+£10, £200k GTD, with x50 £1k seats taken from the £200k guaranteed prize pool (£50,000 taken from the prize pool). 209 players cashed in this event, 51st place finisher received £500, 50th got £500 and a £1,000 seat. The next occurrence of a £1,000 pay jump didn’t happen again until the final table, the pay jump from 8th to 7th.

Clearly this is a massive distortion of the normal structure of a tournament. £50,000 of players’ money is automatically re-circulated within the card room, raked twice, and the players have no say in the matter other than to not attend and not support this fantastic card room and the great events they hold.

Secondly, last November we had the WPT, with a series of events leading up to the £3k main event.

If you played the series of WPT events:

WPT Warm Up £125, £250k GTD, with x100 WPT500 £500 seats taken from the prize pool (£50k). If you won one of the WPT500 seats, and then played…

£1 million GTD WPT500 with x50 £3k seats (£150k), won one of those seats and then played…

£1 million GTD WPT Main event £3k.

You’ve just had your money raked 3 times, whether you wanted it or not.

Looking at the results pages for the WPT500:

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=259000

It’s impossible to work out at a glance if the prize pool displayed includes the ‘included’ seats, or if they’ve been deducted. While the UKPC main reports a £1,002,000 prize pool, yet we know that includes the rake and the actual prize pool paid out is really £901,800.

tweet

UKPC no correction

Because of the combination of the 1 million guarantee and the registration fee being deducted from the prize pool this rather strange anomaly occurs. In a situation where there are 900 players and it doesn’t look like hitting 1,000, there is no incentive for anyone else to join the tournament as no extra money from the next 100 entries goes into the prize pool. It merely meets the card room’s tournament fees and stops them having to pay out an overlay. In the eternal battle of the players’ interests versus the casinos’ interests, it would be in the player’s best interest not to make other players aware of the overlay. 11.1% more players just makes the event 11.1% harder to win. The optimal play from the players’ point of view is to dissuade others from coming to play. Casinos rely on word of mouth as a way to attract players, having a situation where its optimal for players to be on social media ‘radio silence’ to maximise their own chances, clearly that isn’t ideal.

Huge overlays and casinos losing money by staging events with guarantees that aren’t met, isn’t good for the long term prospect of poker. Casinos and card rooms need to be viable and profitable.

These observations needs to be balanced with the gratitude we have that card rooms like Dusk till Dawn and tours like the UKIPT stick their neck out and put on £1,000,000 guaranteed events. These big numbers draw the crowds and create excitement and hype, stimulating the UK poker economy.

So the balance has to be right for us both. Poker tours, casinos and card rooms need to be profitable but players need to be treated with respect. The product on sale and its cost has to be transparent. No one likes to feel conned or cheated so it is fundamental that before we cough up our hard earned money, players need to be aware of ‘the Price of Poker’.

When you fail to be transparent, we have to assume it’s because you have something to hide.

A Bankroll challenge & twitch

Twitch Blog

After a wee break from poker I’m now back playing and broadcasting as I play on the super dooper fantastical Twitch.com eSports streaming site.

http://www.twitch.tv/wil_scottish

I have no real reason for doing this other than, everyone else is…

Rather than just play for random wealth, I’m setting myself a bankroll challenge. From a bankroll of $3,000 I hope to turn this into $15,000 and use that to pay my way to ‘Vegas Baby’ for my 1st attempt at the WSOP main event in July 2015.

So I need to spin up $3k to $15k between Mar, Apr, May & Jun. That’s about $4k per month I need to make. I will only be playing 3 or 4 days per week, so I need to hit an average $285 profit each day.

My MTT results are a little skewed, 55% ROI over a 1,300 sample $27.50 avg buy in. Giving me an avg profit of $16.39. If I can maintain that ROI I would only need to play 17 MTTs per day.

I don’t think my ROI will survive this challenge. A more realistic expectation is 20% ROI, so to meet my $285 profit per day I’ll likely have to play a much, much higher volume.

I’ll resist playing bigger buy ins until my bankroll has grown to accommodate them. It’s my intention to stick to a pretty rigid 100 buy ins, no shot taking unless there’s a VERY good reason.

To make my challenge just that little bit tougher, I’ll be giving away 1% of my daily winnings to 5 people, picked at random from those retweeting my Twitch channel – http://www.twitch.tv/wil_scottish with the hashtag #WilScottishTwitch

I’m on Twitter as @Willie_Hmmm

https://twitter.com/Willie_Hmmm

Further to this, I’m hoping to break into the top 10 in the PocketFives.com Scotland page.

http://www.pocketfives.com/united-kingdom/scotland-poker-community/

I think this will be an even tougher ask as the stakes I plan to play mean I’ll not be competing for the bigger leaderboard points. And to put this into context, after 5 months of not playing I currently sit 217th in Scotland.
So here goes…

02/03/2015 Balance $3,000

Good luck us.

I should really give a shoutout to
http://www.twitch.tv/easywithaces

Fintan Hand, who inspired me with his very own bankroll challenge. Looks like he’s crushing it, good luck bud.

https://easywithaces.wordpress.com/2015/03/01/time-to-move-up/

Folding A Winning Hand

winning hand

This is quite a difficult blog to write. I think I’m about to slate one of my poker heroes. Based on just about any measure you care to use, he is the number one poker player in the world. I currently rank 9,000th in the world, so I may not be best qualified to judge him. I talk of Daniel Negreanu.

I started watching poker in the late 90s on Channel 4. Late Night Poker, a darkened smoke filled room with dodgy looking characters straight out of an east end gangster movie. I was hooked pretty much straight away even though I didn’t know the rules. As the years and series passed and various new poker shows were made & broadcast, these ‘characters’ became familiar faces. The top British & European players mixed with the top Americans.

Like a lot of sports, you soon get your favourites. I was particularly fond of a young pretty girl called Vicky Coren and a witty, chatty, fun loving American called Daniel Negreanu.

Poker can be very unforgiving. Poker stars who shine bright tend to fade away very quickly. There have been more people launched into outer space than there are people who were winning at poker 15 years ago who are still winning now. The game develops at such a pace, this has been exaggerated with the growth of online poker. If you stand still ability wise, you are left behind.

Vicky Coren Mitchell became the first 2 time EPT winner last year. This is an achievement I rate higher than any of the multiple WSOP main event winners, partly because of the bigger fields she faced, but more importantly, the standard of opposition has never been higher. The average WSOP main event player of the 70s 80s & 90s would not compete vs the average EPT player of the 2000s & 2010s.

Similarly Daniel Negreanu, Kid Poker, this year he moved himself to the top of the all time money list and last year he won the WSOP player of the year title for the 2nd time.

These two buck the trend, alongside Ivey & Hellmuth and a very few others, no one else who was winning at poker 15 years ago is still winning today. The current crop of winning players are simply technically better and there are so many of them. Those who failed to adapt and improve have fallen by the wayside.

That I chose Vicky & Daniel as ‘MY’ players just shows what a great judge of character I am.

Amongst the many changes announced by PokerStars, the latest is the addition of Casino Gaming & Sports Betting.

Announced here – http://www.pokernews.com/news/2014/11/pokerstars-sports-betting-casino-games-19891.htm

This was followed shortly after by an announcement from Vicky that she is to leave PokerStars Team Pro over this launch and her principled objection to combining poker with other more “dangerous” forms of gambling.

She wrote “I know in my heart that continuing in my current role could risk helping to send people to a place where they would encounter something I think is dangerous. That’s not the way I want to make a living”.

Her full statement is here http://www.victoriacoren.com/main/blog/archive/goodbye_team_pro

Each Team Pro has their own deal, the only figure I’ve actually had confirmed was for a lesser known pro who had a playing & expenses budget in the region of 6 figures. At the very least Vicky has given up a deal which over the years would have been worth millions.

I can’t imagine, nor would I want to bring any pressure to bear on any other member of Team Pro to take the same stance. The current climate in the poker economy is a difficult one. There are very few sponsorship opportunities for the up and coming batch of young players. If you have a deal, whatever your view is, it’s in your best interests not to express any critical opinions.

Vicky Coren Mitchell did not do what was in her best interests, but she comes out of this with almost universal praise for her principled stance. It is rare these days to see such an obvious display of integrity. I was genuinely shocked by her announcement. Saddened too, because she is a 1st class ambassador for our game and I just adore her.

Here’s where my blog gets tricky. I’ve always considered Daniel Negreanu one of my favourite players. I based my own playing style & table manner on what I saw him do. And what he does is talk and talk and talk. He enjoys himself at the poker table and it’s fantastic for the spectators & viewers. His engagement at the table and speech play maybe won’t work too often on experienced pros who will make maths based decisions and won’t be moved from the correct play even if Daniel is telling them their exact 2 cards and goading them to call his river bomb. I was sat 3 tables away from Daniel at EPT London 2013, and in a room of 500 people, I could follow the action of every flop turn & river from his table. He was constant. I can imagine it tilting all but the very strongest of characters.

He blogged his own response to Vicky’s announcement here – http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-journal.php?subaction=showfull&id=1417239608&archive=&start_from=&ucat=&

I’ll paraphrase what he said into ‘why is it okay for winning players to exploit losing players at the poker table, but it’s not okay for the house to exploit players in casino games’. A fair point but one that’ll I’ll address once I’ve explained my own filtered perception of Daniel.

As I say above, I always liked Daniel. The entertainment value he provides to viewers is second to none. The work he has done to promote the game, second to none. His place in the history of the game, second to none. He is the number one poker player for a good reason.

With Dan Colman’s recent attack on Phil Hellmuth in mind, where I feel in almost complete agreement with Colman on most opinions he’s expressed, his decision & reasons for not giving an interview after his one drop win, his ‘Free Gaza’ t-shirt at an EPT event final table. His attack on a legend of our game. I thought the attack was justified, Hellmuth has unanswered questions about the Ultimate Bet cheating scandal.

But here’s the thing with Hellmuth. He’s one of the guys who worked tirelessly to promote poker. His ‘antics’ as the ‘Poker Brat’ made it entertaining for a wider audience. His ability to still compete 25 years after he won the WSOP main event. For me, that gives him a pass. He’s earned the right to have made huge mistakes and still get respect and acknowledgement for his achievements.

My admiration for Daniel Negreanu has waned for a few specific reasons. Daniel as a vegan (I’m vegetarian for reasons of animal welfare) and someone I consider as a caring & compassionate human being, a philanthropist. I admire these qualities greatly. Yet during the recent conflict in Gaza, Daniel tweeted his support for Israel, at a time when it was known 2,000 civilians, 500 of them children, had been killed by the Israeli Defence Forces.

“For the record I’m 100% pro-Israel defending themselves against terrorist groups like Hamas and you aren’t going to change my mind on twitter”

In fairness to Daniel he engaged with people on Twitter and debated with them, myself included, and with mutual respect signed off with a desire for there to be peace and no more killing.

I’m aware I’m subjected to a media that is more sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians than Daniel is. American politics is unambiguously sympathetic to Israel and this gets reflected in the US media. It’s tough to form views that contradict the constant stream of propaganda. Daniel also stated he’s had discussions with an ex Israeli military friend. It’s easy for me to say, well that’s obvious bias, but I don’t live in Tel Aviv and I’m not subjected to the acts committed, desperate attempts of desperate people to achieve statehood and recognition for their plight. I have more sympathy for the Palestinians because they appear to be suffering much more than their Israeli counterparts. But Daniel isn’t killing anyone, he’s just expressed a sincere opinion about who his sympathies are with. I’m disappointed and I feel his humanitarian credentials are lessened, but I respect his right to have a different opinion, and I appreciate that he is engaging with people who are appalled by his opinions.

Next up is Daniel defending the recent changes in rake and charges for currency conversion. http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-forum/index.php?showtopic=147358

More than defending it, I felt Daniel was cheerleading the changes. I can understand an employee who is required to reflect changes to his companies’ terms & policies, but to say these are good things for the poker community, that we are better off for the price increase in poker, I found this disingenuous. Again I appreciate him engaging with followers on Twitter, myself included, but this led to Daniel making some appalling statements. It clearly showed to me that Daniel is a company man. He is more concerned with the interests of PokerStars than the interests of its players.

“the goal of an online poker company is increased profits. The ROI of it’s winning players doesn’t enter into the equation”

“when pros left UB (Ultimate Bet) what remained was awesome games for any pros who took the gamble with them”

I thought these tweets were incendiary. That PokerStars doesn’t care about its winning players, even though they are the highest volume players on the site and pay more rake than anyone. Talking about Ultimate Bet & PokerStars, making comparisons. The most shameful site in the history of online poker, who literally cheated and stole from its players, that this was a good site to play once all the sensible grinders left because it was only fish left. And to have that site compared to PokerStars because it’s driving away the sensible grinders with its price hike.

I didn’t engage on these points because I like Daniel. I don’t want this blog to be about the worst things Daniel has ever said and lets all hate on him.

As with Hellmuth, Daniel gets a pass. He can say things I disagree with, he can side with a company who seems not to care about the health of poker and are only interested in their own profit margins. He gets to do this and say these things and still get my respect, simply because he is still around. Longevity. You’re not supposed to last this long in poker. Very few have, and those that do make it, they get a pass from me, even if what they’re saying is kick the ladders away from underneath me, lets damage the poker economy so fewer and fewer people can make it to my level because we’re damaging poker in the hope of increased profits for my sponsor.

The introduction of casino games & sports betting. Putting these services on the client alongside poker. This can only result in there being less money in the poker economy. PokerStars own press release announcing this even confirmed there will be “a negligible impact on poker spend”. That is an announcement telling us all how great it will be acknowledging there will be less money in the poker economy as a result. This is a bad thing, the poker economy is already shrinking, making changes that will shrink it even more is not the solution to improve the game.

I’m fortunate enough to know a few of the top poker players in the UK. As good as their poker skills are and the edge they have over the average player, I’m aware of some who love the thrill of the gamble. I have seen them wager huge amounts on casino gaming. They know and every sensible poker player knows, these games are for losers. It is not possible to beat casino games long term. Anyone with a basic sense of maths & odds knows this, yet some with addictive personalities are attracted to them. The thrill, the swings, the occasional high, but the inevitable lows, these games are not beatable, but those with weaknesses will play them.

Adding them to our poker client is an abomination. I was fortunate enough to see the damaging effects of problem gambling at a young age. Enough so that it put me off for life. As Daniel points out, how then can I rationalise that obvious exploitation of the casino, the house, over the ‘mug punters’, with the same exploitation that winning players have against losing players in poker? Well, I can’t easily. I recognise poker is a pyramid where those with most ability will rise to the top, those with least ability will eventually lose their bankroll, leave the game and need to be replaced to keep the pyramid topped up to pay the elite.

I find myself to be one of the top 4 or 5 earners in Scotland in 2014, but I’m aware this has more to do with good fortune than overall ability. I recognise my place in the food chain. My results over the past 18 months online and live show a healthy profit, but that profit comes out of only 4 tournaments. Without those I am an entirely break even player. Those 4 games represent my top 0.5% of results. I suspect my stats & ROI won’t look too bad Vs any player if you remove their top 0.5% of results. But I know I am a lesser able player than the very best and I’ve had good fortune to get results beyond my level of play. I’ve also found myself having to speak to friends who are losing players. I’ve not told them to stop playing, as they enjoy the game, but I’ve advised them to play at lower buy in levels where they will be some of  better players playing at that level and the rates of losses are more sustainable. Some have taken my advice, some have not.

If you are a bad poker player, your hobby will cost you money, but I rationalise that with other hobbies which have a cost attached, golf, go karting, 5 a-side football. There is a cost to participate, but the social interaction, the fun element, the challenge to be overcome, those have more value than what it costs in financial terms. This is just the same with poker as long as those playing are doing so within their limits and enjoying the experience, it is a perfectly good pastime to take part in. The winning players will win more often and get their wage from it, but most of us know our own ability level and consent to this. Sometimes getting to play with players much better than ourselves is the thrill.

Daniel points out he doesn’t need any more money, he won’t be able to spend the money he has already won in his lifetime, therefore that’s not why he plays poker. Similarly, I don’t rely on poker for an income, but I do rely on it to fund further poker adventures. My ability to continue to play poker relies on getting a return often enough that it funds future buy ins. So far, all good, I get to play the games I want with no detrimental effect to my finances.

Playing poker gives me a challenge to overcome and it gives me social interaction. I value the challenge and I’ve risen to it often enough that it’s been profitable for me. The social interaction is why I prefer live poker to online. I genuinely want it to be a pleasant experience for the people I’m playing with and for myself. I talk to my opponents, engage with them, I’m interested to hear their stories and their opinions. I’ve made many friends with complete strangers I’m randomly assigned to sit down and play with for 8 or 10 hours. For me this is the beauty of poker, other human beings, part of a community, playing with billionaire hedge fund managers and playing with those who empty bins, accomplished winning professionals and guys who have won entries through satellites for $10. We all come together on an even playing field and we compete against each other in a battle of wits.

This community we’re part of. There isn’t an equivalent in the casino gaming world. There aren’t forums where we discuss roulette strategy and evolve a thought process, interact and improve our roulette ability to a place where we can beat the game. We will always be mug punters in roulette. Poker is unique & distinct as a form of gambling. PokerStars decision to include these games on the poker client, to tarnish our ‘skill’ game by association with these exploitative long term losing games, where the house will always win. To raid our poker economy so they can take a bigger cut for themselves with these games. To knowingly damage & shrink the poker economy, meaning less money will make it into poker prizepools by shunting people & their deposits off to routlette, blackjack & slots.

PokerStars revenues will not decrease, but the poker economy will. The money available to gamble with is finite, PokerStars seems intent on ensuring it takes a bigger & bigger share.

My perception of Daniel is diminished, Israel comments, rake increase, casino games. His voice is that of his corporate masters. He speaks for them and not for his community.

But his place in poker is set. He is the number one. And even from this position he has always been generous with his time on twitter responding to comments and engaging with people. I give him great credit for this. He doesn’t have to speak to us, he doesn’t have to open himself up to the abuse he sometimes takes. But I would also say, he doesn’t have to be a cheerleader for every negative change being implemented. Other Team Pros have managed a dignified silence.

Vicky managed to get universal respect and admiration for her stance. PokerStars not only lost a two time EPT winner, they also lost a level of respectability and class that Vicky brought to the brand. A portal direct to the UK celebrity classes who saw poker through Vicky as a respectable game played by intellectuals. An accomplished author, broadcaster & wit, lending her good name to our disreputable game. We’ve been very lucky to have her and she’ll be a huge loss to PokerStars.

I love you PokerStars, but WTF???

clubs players

As has been known to happen when I write, I plan a blog, this time a travel/poker blog about my recent trips to UKIPT Isle of Man & UKIPT London, then events overtake me and there is something more important I want to write about.  Specifically, it’s what is happening with the changes to PokerStars in what some on twitter have labelled as ‘Red Thursday’!

But before I get into that, I’ll say what I want to say about these trips because it is important.

UKIPT Isle of Man at the beginning of October and UKIPT London the week after.  It went for me in poker terms as bad as it possibly could have, I played bad, I ran bad, but out of it I somehow managed to still have a great time.  I rationalise my poker losses as part of an overall great year.  Friendships I’ve built up with some of the best players in the UK grow as I get to know more people and in those 2 weeks, we experienced the mixture of my relative failure and their enormous successes.  Specifically Daragh Davey, crowned UKIPT player of the year, a fantastic achievement and thoroughly deserved.  This line is stolen but I liked it a lot, “anyone can go on a heater and go deep in a few tourneys or even win a few of them, but to have been so consistent over a season of 80 or 90 tourneys, main events & side events, that is the mark of someone with real ability”.  Daragh who’s a member of a group of Irish pros called ‘The Firm’ who had 3 or 4 players in the top 10 of all the UKIPT leaderboards, and that finished off nicely with Kevin Killeen (another ‘Firm’ member) getting 3rd in EPT London for the biggest score of his career.  ‘The Firm’ are, I dare to say, firmly established as a group of players who do poker the right way.  If any group of friends who play poker are looking for a formula for how to approach the game, these are the guys I would base it on.

UKIPT season 4 started off with Ludovich Geilich winning in Marbella, he finished off with a final table in UKIPT Isle of Man, and 21st in UKIPT London, back to back top 2% finishes, neither for huge amounts of cash, but testament to the fact that Ludo is without a doubt one the best up & coming players in the UK.  And a fantastic win for Brett Angell in UKIPT London, a thoroughly nice guy who I’d first seen on the UKIPT when it was televised when he came 2nd to Gaz Walker in Nottingham in season 2.  Also worth a mention is Tomasz Raniszewski who came 2nd in the UKIPT player of the year leaderboard.  Tomasz was sat with with some of the Firm lads in a Nottingham side event that was down to 2 or 3 tables, while they inadvertently discussed him and saying at least he wasn’t there to pick up leaderboard points, he sat quietly listening to it all while they were oblivious to his presence, he of course goes on to win that side event.  I’m sat in the later stages of a side event in the Isle of Man telling this amusing story to Max Silver who was also in the leaderboard hunt.  Max calls me over later and says, “Willie, see that TomaszRa guy you were talking about, he was at our table when you were telling the story”.  Oops, I finally figured out who Tomasz was and made sure he got introduced to the people I knew.  Again, a thoroughly nice guy I got to know, who has a huge talent for the game and is destined for big things.

In the 2nd visit to Marbella this season, where I’d turned my poker trip into part poker, part holiday, I’d arranged with a few other players to have a day out Go Karting.  Most who’d expressed an interest ended up hungover and unwell so couldn’t make it, but the few who did had a great day out.

10264673_814413171910240_7214101981709279156_nI set out to organise another day out like this at the Isle of Man and cheekily asked the people I knew who manage and run the UKIPT if they’d be interested in putting up a small prize for the winner and seeing if any of the UKIPT staff would be interested in coming along too.  Their response was amazing but not surprising, the management of the UKIPT are so well respected by the players, we are so lucky in the UK & Ireland to have such a well run tour backed by a major player like PokerStars.  They ended up handling the booking, putting on a free bus to transport players to and from the karting venue and the small prize for a winner grew into an entry to UKIPT London worth £770.  An amazing gesture by an amazing bunch of people.  Specific thanks to David Curtis, Jamie Moniz & Kenny Diack for organising everything and looking after us so well.

We have a fantastic day, although again, the numbers were reduced as many of the players I know who were interested in coming along had made it into the last 20% of the main.  I really do know some fantastic players.

20141004_162618_resizedNo surprise to me, the winner was my brother Dode Elliot, with myself getting a creditable but far behind 2nd.  As much as it pains me to say, he is faster than me in a go kart.  Well played bro.

20141004_171102_resizedIMG_0662 - Copy

And thanks to Paul Rimmer of My Poker Pal for donating the trophy for the winner.

The fantastic service the public facing staff of PokerStars & the UKIPT give is second to none.  The management, the TDs, the admin staff, the dealers, just brilliant, I cannot praise them highly enough.  I’m also an avid follower of the EPT and again, the staff who we see and who are always willing to interact with the viewers & players, from those in the commentary booth to the bloggers, just brilliant at what they do and how they come across.

I am a huge and loyal supporter of PokerStars.  I literally don’t play on any other site.  My choice of live games is based around the tours they run and I have always felt well looked after, that the company had the interests of the players at its heart and was dedicated to looking after us and making sure the playing experience for the players was a positive one.  This sentiment was echoed by people who knew the market better than me, so I have remained a one site player, I play on PokerStars, I only play on PokerStars.  I’ve never felt the need to give more than a cursory glance to what other sites offered, I was satisfied with the site I played on.

But today, after the announcements of various changes PokerStars are implementing, I find myself in a tricky position.  The brand I love and the brand I’m loyal to, it appears to want to bring its business in line with the standards of the lesser poker sites.  Fees are being incurred, rake is increasing, bonuses and promotions are being cut back.  The motive for these changes appear to be centred on increasing profit and the backlash from the poker community is very hostile.  These links on 2+2 poker forum appear to be the only formal way players are being notified of these changes, so those who don’t live in the poker bubble will be oblivious to them…

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/announcement-pokerstars-changes-rake-spin-go-prizes-battle-planets-1485512/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/pokerstars-currency-exchange-rates-1484001/

The price of poker has gone up.  I am not a professional player, I don’t rely on poker for a living, but for the people who do, life just got a bit tougher.  The people who play the game the right way, approach it like a business, who know their ROI and hit it at a consistent level over the long term, the increase in rake & fees & the removal of promotions & bonuses represents a massive pay cut for them.  Some beat the game by a big enough margin that they will continue on with that reduction in pay, but for many others, these changes mean they will no longer be able make a living from the game.

For a recreational player like myself, I had been trying to work out how I could approach a grind to start playing a more serious volume, but these changes make that a more difficult prospect.

PokerStars approach seems to be to squeeze more and more out of the game for themselves leaving less and less in the poker economy for the players.  I assume they have conducted market research that shows although they will lose a percentage of players, the majority of recreational players will continue to play oblivious to this profit creep.  And as there are no serious competitors in the market, PokerStars can be as ruthless as they want to the players, because where else are they going to play that has the volume of games available?

PokerStars is the biggest because they were the best.  Making their product just that bit shittier is something you can do when you have a near monopoly.  While discussing the fallout of some of the earlier announced changes, someone from PokerStars said of the new PokerStars 7 client, something like 12% of PokerStars players are using the new client, and if that client was being run by another company, they’d be the 2nd biggest in terms of share of the market.  That’s a very unhealthy position for the industry to be in.  When one company has such a dominant position in the market, it doesn’t need the consent of its customers to change its business practices, hence the recent announcements have come and the player outrage can be ignored, because what are we going to do about it, what can we do about it?

The answer is sadly nothing.  Until there is real competition in the market place, we had better get used to a poorer service and increasing fees at the whim of what appears to be a profit driven ethos.

There is a stark contrast of how well players are treated at live events versus what appears to be sheer contempt the corporate arm of PokerStars has towards its online customers.

Within a week, I’ve been moved from being an adoring and loyal fan of brand PokerStars to being cautious and dubious of their motives.  I no longer trust that they have the players best interests at heart.

It feels like a very dark day for our industry/our sport/our fun…

With all that said, people are entitled to feel aggrieved, annoyed, upset at how we’re being treated, I know I am.  But it’s important to remember, the public facing staff members of PokerStars, these are not the people who came up with these changes, and it’s important we don’t direct our anger towards them.  I had the pleasure to sit with many of the back room staff at the Isle of Man, and a you couldn’t meet a nicer bunch of people.  Every staff member I played with shared the enthusiasm for the game that we the players have, it must be hurting them to feel the backlash that is happening on social media today, but these decisions are happening way above the pay grade of anyone we’ll get to communicate with, so please go easy on them while you’re venting your anger & frustration.

 

I heart PokerStars.

but…

PokerStars clubs players.

 

Sigh.

Poker & Politics…

Politics logo

I wasn’t going to write this blog. Two players, Olivier Busqet & Daniel Colman (him again, trouble maker), they recently played the final table of the €50k Super High Roller at EPT11 Barcelona wearing t-shirts with the messages “Save Gaza” & “Free Palestine”. They came 1st and 2nd, and as good friends they agreed on an amicable chop of the prize money, with Olivier going on to take the title. There was a little commotion on twitter but the moment came and went. They’d made their statements and initially didn’t comment or elaborate further on the slogans.

 

ept11-barc-shr-ft_orig_full_sidebar

So that was an interesting side note as part of an excellent tournament, but I thought I’d pass on giving my views which were being echoed succinctly on twitter by people more eloquent than me. I don’t do succinct…

 

However, the day after, it was announced that PokerStars were now going to implement a ban on players displaying “political slogans” at their events. They stated “We will refuse entry to any player displaying political statements of any kind.”

 

The statement was as vague as it gets. What actually constitutes a political statement? A CND symbol? A Smiths “Meat is Murder” t-shirt? A Che Guevara t-shirt? A Gay Pride t-shirt? An AIDS awareness ribbon? A charity wristband? Gavin Griffin’s pink hair to raise awareness of breast cancer? All are political slogans or symbols.

gavin-griffin-5316

 

I have first hand experience volunteering for an AIDS charity which was involved in intense political lobbying for its cause. The nature of almost all charities is they have to lobby, campaign and dare I say, express ‘political statements’. In my time I met MPs, Peers, Cabinet Ministers. Charities are political and would potentially fall foul of this ban.

 

So are these “political statements” to be banned for players on outer tables, or is it only players on feature tables, which will be broadcast on the livestream and for future TV broadcasts?

 

And if this ban only applies to feature tables, what then if a player is moved to the feature table mid way through the day. Will they then be told they will be removed from play if they don’t remove the clothing with the political statement?

 

Like in gym at school, where if you forgot your PE kit and were made to play in your underpants, will players be sitting bare chested at feature tables?

 

As much appeal as this has for tables featuring Liv Boeree, Vicky Coren Mitchell & Fatima Moreira de Melo, I feel it would be very unfair to all men to have the naked toned torsos of Patrick Antonius and David Williams on display.

 

And is a ban like this even legal? In Europe, where we have a shameful history of oppressive regimes, we have human rights written into law, so they cannot be breached on a whim. Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights covers Freedom of Expression, which includes political expression.

 

Some have surmised that as these tournaments are private events in private venues, therefore the organiser can set any restrictions they see fit and refuse entry for any reason they want. I would argue that as it is an event open to any member of the public, they must operate within the law. They cannot refuse admission on the grounds of race, gender, sexual orientation, disability, as this would breach discrimination laws.

 

Refusing admission on the basis of clothing that doesn’t breach a casino’s dress code and is legal and inoffensive, I suspect that would leave PokerStars vulnerable to being sued. Refusing admission while breaching someones legally protected right to freedom of expression surely cannot be right.

 

I accept that PokerStars broadcasting these ‘political statements’ may cause diplomatic ripples in some of their more sensitive markets. This is not an issue that affects the players. We have paid to participate in a tournament, the broadcast & promotional elements are secondary to the players tournament.

 

And as a few big names on twitter have said –

Everyone should sport a ‘political’ message or symbol at the next EPT. But no shades, right?

https://twitter.com/barnyboatman/statuses/502891598230085632

 

One thing is certain: you can expect some players to troll until they back down from this ridiculous position

https://twitter.com/steveodwyer/statuses/502784662130155521

 

Part of the statement released by PokerStars said “In retrospect it was a mistake to allow them entry (Olivier Busqet & Daniel Colman)”. Would they really have removed 2 players from a final table? I can only imagine the reaction to this would have been explosive and incredibly toxic for PokerStars. It would have gone way beyond the poker press and become a mainstream news story about censorship.

 

As far as I was concerned, the story was over, the whole episode would have been forgotten about after a short while. But now the ban is the story. And this will run & run as more people test PokerStars resolve. There are many creative, intelligent & opinionated poker players who through polite civil disobedience will give this issue longevity.

 

PokerStars in their heavy handed attempt to shut down this issue, have now created a rod for their own back. Are they bluffing? Will they have to fold? If an entire final table full of players turn up wearing ‘political statements’ which they refuse to remove, is the tournament over? Only time will tell…

 

Sport & Politics…

 In 1968 at the height of the civil rights movement in America, Tommie Smith & John Carlos won Gold and Bronze in the 200m final at the Mexico Olympics, during the medal ceremony they each held a black gloved fist aloft. This iconic image was seen around the world and has since become one of the most recognised symbols of the struggle against black oppression & racism.

 black-power-salute

Smith & Carlos were expelled from the Olympics for this political statement.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18732127

 

Cassius Clay , the greatest boxer in the history of the sport, respected & admired around the world, but forced to live as a 2nd class citizen at home in a deeply troubled & divided 1960s America. Cassius had to deal with segregation & discrimination daily. And the legend goes, when refused service in a diner and attacked by a racist gang, Cassius took the gold medal he won at the 1960 Olympics and threw it into the Ohio River.

 

http://archive.courier-journal.com/article/20100830/ALI/308300041/Was-medal-thrown-river-Tales-still-vary

 

Then in 1967, with the Vietnam War at its height, the now renamed Muhammad Ali, takes a stand and refuses to be drafted. “Why should they ask me to put on a uniform and go 10,000 miles from home and drop bombs and bullets on Brown people in Vietnam while so-called Negro people in Louisville are treated like dogs and denied simple human rights?”

 

http://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2013/apr/29/muhammad-ali-refuses-to-fight-in-vietnam-war-1967

 Becoming-Muhammad-20Ali-1024x1024

Ali is banned from competing for 4 years for taking this political stand.

 

Along with Smith & Carlos, Ali believed the civil rights issues in America and the Vietnam War, were more important issues than the sport they competed in.

 

Busquet & Colman used their opportunity to highlight the terrible loss of human life in Gaza. To show empathy with those suffering. They did so without bluster and without pointing the finger of blame. I thought they did this in a dignified way and showed sincere humanity & compassion. On the morning of potentially a million euro pay day, they were thinking of others living in an impossibly difficult situation.

 

I don’t believe they set out to offend anyone and I don’t believe anyone should have been offended.

Save Gaza.

Free Palestine.

For these to be achieved Palestine would need to be a viable functioning state living in peace with a safe & secure Israel. I see nothing controversial about wanting the conflict & killing to end. It’s only the extremists who want anything different.

 

Some have asked, what if others want to display swastikas or homophobic slogans. Football players aren’t allowed to show political slogans.

That’s not exactly true. For tributes, for charities, for causes, football teams often display overtly political messages.

 2_articleimage efc__1352388254_poppy1

These are acceptable, but what is not acceptable, is offensive gestures or slogans. Gestures which promote hate, incite racism, encourage violence. These are not acceptable. And these are not protected under article 10 of ECHR. We are not free to express views which incite hatred, violence or criminality.

 

article-2305295-01FC42030000044D-867_634x461180313-salutePANews_N0198651390245985319A_I1  article-2239153-163B8128000005DC-734_634x462

This is not what Busquet & Coleman did.

If PokerStars act on this threat to ban players, I anticipate a large number of players will act as the community we are and resist.  We are the players.  The tournaments belong to us, we’ve paid for them. 

We Are Poker!

The 4%…

Bitmap in the 4 percent

This blog was originally going to be called “How Do You Solve a Problem Like Marbella”?  I had a great time, 5 days of poker went well, 5 days of holiday went well (the problem that was to be solved was how to balance poker & paradise, it got solved by the way), 2 of the 8 trophies were won by friends who I gave lifts to and from the airport (TKP, The Firm & my group picked up a combined 11 Hendon Mob flags between us, from a group of 12 players, pretty good going), the hospitality of the Spanish & UKIPT staff was incredible, David Curtis, Natalie Besate, Kit Thompson, you put on an amazing event, what a brilliant stop for the tour.  I took part in the activity day, the player’s party & match experiences…

Alas, a culture clash at one of the world cup matches shown on big screens as part of the PokerStars festival saw good guy Dale Philip lose his PokerStars sponsorship.  Football banter in the UK regularly sees good friends needle & verbally abuse each other as opposing teams lose, this is purely done for fun & without malice and gets given back with the same fun spirit when your own team loses.  Unfortunately, this banter with accompanying gestures was seen as offensive by some of the Spanish fans, some of whom I consider friends, and they felt that salt was being rubbed in the wounds of a woeful Spanish performance.  They expressed their offence, and I assume they campaigned and after a few days PokerStars acted and stripped this popular player of his sponsorship.  Read more about it from Dale’s perspective here –

http://www.daleroxxu.co.uk/2014/06/dropped-from-pokerstars.html

 

“no interest in promoting poker”

A few days ago, Dan Coleman won 1st prize in the $1,000,000 buy in ‘Big One for One Drop’ at the World Series of Poker.  He beat Daniel Negreanu heads up to win $15,000,000 but upon winning he refused to take part in the usual media interviews and photo shoots that accompanies wins at these events.  The media backlash was severe, many people appeared to be personally offended by his apparent snub to the poker industry.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2014/jul/02/reserved-star-or-rich-scrub-daniel-colman-creates-/

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2014/07/five-thoughts-one-drop-winner-declines-media-ivey-wins-numbe-18695.htm

Much chatter on twitter followed and Dan Coleman subsequently answered back with this response.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=43862667&postcount=2553

This leads me to what my blog is actually about.  Dale Philip just lost his sponsorship deal, Dan Coleman doesn’t want a sponsorship deal because he sees the poker industry as exploitative, so my question is, can the average player win at poker?  Or is it all a giant pyramid scheme, where a few win but the vast majority are losers who are being used & exploited to fund the lavish lifestyles of a few?

 

pyramid-schemes-demotivational-poster-1238865630 pyramid_scheme

 

“How many people actually make a living, even a modest one, playing poker”?

I read somewhere years ago that 96% of all people who play poker lose money at it.  I’ve struggled to find where I read that, but everything I’ve seen and heard since I started playing poker tells me that number is correct.

This article is 9 years old and although it doesn’t factor in the modern world of profitable on-line grinders, I think the key points are still valid and it ties in closely with my 4% figure.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=lovinger/050111

Another more topical article discusses why it’s extremely difficult to play live poker profitably.

http://regressing.deadspin.com/why-its-hard-for-poker-pros-to-make-a-living-playing-l-1526098295

You need to be in the top 4% of poker players in the world to be in profit. That still won’t give you enough to live from.  The people winning at poker by a big enough margin to actually take a wage from it are going to be an even smaller percentage, but if you are in profit, if you are in the 4% club, congratulations, well done, we’ve made it, we’ve beat the game.

But what about the other 96%?  The people who aspire to be in the 4% and who the winning players want to keep aspiring whilst they’re paying our wages.

Is poker evil?  Is it the exploitation of the weak by the strong?  Is it the “very dark game” that Dan Coleman believes it is?

I had the honour to sit with Steve O’Dwyer at Edinburgh UKIPT in January.  A fantastic player, widely regarded as one of the best players in the world and considered by most to be a genuinely nice guy.  And I’m sitting with him in my home city playing a £1k buy in that I’d satellite in for £7 (because that’s how I roll).  He’d just come back from a disappointing PCA where he’d played a $10k buy in Main Event, a $25k buy in High Roller and a $100k buy in Super High Roller.  So this guy, 15th in the Global Poker Index rankings for 2013 was sitting there, next to a guy who got his seat for £7, and Steve’s sitting with no sponsors patches on, drinking his own tea that he brings with him when he’s playing, from his own cup.  I like to chat at a poker table, and he’s being very courteous and engaging with me, and I ask “why no sponsorship”?  His answer was one similar to Dan Coleman’s response.  He’s not completely comfortable with the business he’s in.  The business model of the poker sites is to constantly attract new players, and he’d need to let himself be used to sell that dream to those people, and that idea made him uncomfortable so he chooses not to.  He likes the game, he enjoys playing, he’s a huge success and despite being highly sought after and despite making this very good living from the business he’s in, he wants to be a guy who plays poker not a guy who sells the poker dream.  This impressed me greatly, ethics & a strong moral code from a guy whose job is to exploit weakness and to be ruthless, yet he is compassionate & caring and doesn’t want to be part of leading others into a career where it is incredibly difficult to succeed.

I learned a very good lesson at a young age.  Gambling, the bookies and the house always win.  I saw the lives of many relatives negatively affected by problem gambling and as such I don’t gamble myself.  Not a pound on the Grand National, not a pound in a fruit machine.

I’ve placed 8 football bets in my life and I’m up £1,000 on them.  One was a free bet from joining a poker site, 2 were from Scotland beating France in 2007 when I was at the games and I felt the price offered was too good to miss and others were similar value too good to be missed in 1 off opportunities, but still placed with offers from joining a betting site and getting losing bets refunded from your 1st bet etc, with the option to cash out if I lost.

I don’t like gambling.  Like Coleman & O’Dwyer’s comments, I see corporations that want to exploit the poor and sell an unattainable dream.

I spend a lot of time in Casinos, but I only ever play tournament poker.  I have a qualification in Statistical Analysis Techniques and know if you play casino games with a house edge of between 0.5% & 6%, in the long term, you cannot win.  When I see poker players who I know are close to being maths geniuses punt off significant amounts at casino games, I’m gob-smacked.  I don’t like to gamble, so I don’t, I understand they may get a thrill & a rush from it, but it only ever has 1 outcome in the long term, the house always wins.

 

 

So why do I play poker?

People who know poker know the difference, but people who don’t will think I’m deluding myself.  I sometimes think I’m deluding myself.  I question my own ability regularly and have occasional crises of confidence.  I consider myself of only moderate competence at poker, my own perception of my skill level means I shouldn’t be winning.  If I deduct my 2 biggest live wins, instead of having a 467% ROI over 50 games (where the buy in was <£100), I’d have a 5% ROI.  Equally my on-line tournament play, deduct my 2 biggest wins and instead of 71% ROI, I’d have 20% ROI over 1,000 games.  My on-line SnG stats have me losing at a rate of -5%, mainly playing hyper turbos as a learning game for short stack short handed play, so technically an investment🙂

So I am beating poker, but only by 4 results.  I still fear that long term I will lose, although that fear doesn’t seem to be panning out.  Last year was my best year until then, this year is even better, I am doing okay and I can see the game and the business a lot clearer.

 

 

#LoveTheGame #HateTheGame

I like poker. I’ve been watching it since the late 90s, Late Night Poker on Channel 4, learning the game by watching the Hendon Mob, Vicky Coren, Devilfish etc, having a very British take on Texas Hold ‘em.  I liked it, I liked the social interaction that appeared to be going on but back then I never thought I’d play it.

I played a little on-line in the mid 2000s, enjoyed learning the game but didn’t really get more seriously into playing until I started going regularly to a local weekly pub game in the late 2000s. Then Casinos, then UKIPTs, which needed to be won through satellites, so online poker became something I played.

I much prefer live poker, the social interaction is enjoyable in itself, randomly seated with strangers and hearing their stories.  I’ve had the fortune to sit with Tom (Jabracada) Hall a few times at UKIPTs.  One day, once I’d got to know him a bit, I asked him, as a hard working dedicated pro, do you still enjoy playing poker?  His opinion may have changed, as since then, he’s won UKIPT player of the year, just missed out on a final table at the PCA, chopped 2 EPT side events, still crushing online and firmly fixed himself as one of the top 10 players in the UK, but his answer at the time shocked me.  He said, poker for him was work and the sheer amount of time he puts in online makes it a proper grind.

I have so much respect for Tom, for how he plays, easily 1 of the best players I’ve had the pleasure to play with and watching how he does his work close up is a treat, but for him it is work.  It is his job, he doesn’t play poker, he works at poker.  And that for me is why I’m a recreational player and he is a professional.

I don’t rely on poker for an income and I’d play if there was no money involved, I like the game and I like the challenge and I like the people I meet while playing.

I asked the same question of EPT winner Rupert Elder when I played with him at a £200 local casino game last year, he was part way through taking an extended break from poker, but his response was, “even though this has a 1st prize smaller than some of the buy ins I’ve paid, I’m still here playing, so yeah, I must enjoy playing or I wouldn’t be sat here”.

I’ve had the same conversation with a few others and I’m always interested to hear peoples thoughts.  Dara O’Kearney in his latest blog here

http://dokearney.blogspot.ie/2014/06/finishing-lines.html

He quotes David Lappin & Daragh Davey saying if they could make less money doing something they enjoyed more, they’d quit poker.  When Doke told me this, a tear ran down my cheek but fortunately for my manly image, it evaporated immediately in the Marbella sun.

I do love poker but I’m also fortunate enough to have not been jaded by it.  The relative success also means the inevitable down-swings will be softened.

I find myself trying to protect my enthusiasm by limiting how much I play.  I’ve had spells of disliking poker.  Playing perfect, mistake free poker over a decent duration, but having variance just slap me down with improbable turn & river cards.  I don’t enjoy that but I’m also aware that my big wins have always seen me hit at least one 2 or 3 outer over the course of the tournament.  I’ve yet to win a significant amount without having a little of the variance go my way, I’d like that perfect tournament, I got my chips in front in every significant pot and it held each time, that’s yet to happen for me.  But I’ve been dumped out of plenty of tournaments with people playing terribly and getting rewarded for their stupidity.  Those moments are much easier to take when you can see the bigger picture and have the bankroll to take those hits, even then, when they seem to come too often, it can be a real drag.

 

 

Can recreational players win long term at poker?

I’m currently enjoying success, but I have no idea if that’s a short term blip, or if my poker skills are adequate to give me long term regular big scores.  When I first started playing seriously I wanted to play well, so I found myself railing successful players.  The collection of Irish lads called ‘The Firm’ mentioned above.  I looked at their stats and was blown away.  Just a steady lifelong upswing.  If there was ever a correct way to play poker they certainly knew ‘the secret’ and were clearly successful in poker.  I chose to rail them and engage with them to see if I could somehow discover ‘the secret’ for myself.  Sheer force of personality & perseverance made it difficult for them to ignore me and eventually through observation I figured out ‘the secret’ they have.

 

The secret to the success The Firm have is…

Super User Accounts!   No.

Bots! Nope afraid not.

Luck o’ the Irish! Maybe a little.

‘The Secret’ is they work really, really hard.  Both in the study of the game and while they’re playing the game.  They have a work ethic second to none and approach the game as a business.

This revelation was a little disappointing to me. I was looking for a simple answer to make easy money. Working hard was not what I wanted to hear. It’s not that I’m lazy, but I do consider myself efficient with my efforts.

Poker really is a difficult way to make easy money.

I guess what I’m ultimately saying is, not everyone can be winners in this game, but that’s okay. Because 99% of the people who play football down the park on a Sunday are never going to play in the Premier League, 99.9% of the guys who enjoy Go Karting are never going to race in Formula One.  The gap between the grass roots and the elite is too far.   The same goes for poker, if you like playing the game, that’s all you need.   The enjoyment of the pastime.

But what poker does offer, is occasionally for a few pounds investment, you’ll spin that up through a satellite and one day you’ll be sitting next to one of the top 10 poker players in the world.  No matter how often you go to the park, you’ll never get to play with Ronaldo or Messi.  No matter how often you go Go Karting, you’ll never get to race with Vettel, Hamilton or Alonso.

And I may not compete financially with Jake Cody or Steve O’Dwyer over the long term, but I got my 4 bet in and I check raised on the flop.  In that one hand, in that one tournament, I was competing.  The Pyramid looks very flat on days like that.

I may be pretty far down the food chain of the poker pyramid scheme, but I was able to look up and touch the tip…

Toby Stone did give me a warning though, touching the tip is considered inappropriate sexual contact and is grounds for disqualification😉

 


 

 

Am I the exception to the rule?  Is my success an anomaly?  Small volume, small bankroll, big wins.

I agree a more professional approach is a more sure way to steady long term success.

 

My tips for a successful career would be –

Bankroll Management – Play within a budget and stick to it. Bust players can’t win anything.

Study, Study, Study! – Educate yourself, read as much as you can, watch everything you can & discuss hands & strategy with better players.  Never believe you’ve learnt all there is to learn and you have a foolproof way to play, you should be constantly trying to improve & adapting to how the game is evolving with current trends.

Game selection – choose games where you will generally be the best player at the table. Look for overlays, added value, look to increase your edge over the field & the format.  And play satellites. They are the best way to get massive ROI and play bigger games without risking too much.

Play a lot of volume, work hard, put the hours in.

Regularly re-evaluate yourself and monitor your progress, get feedback form others on your game.

But most important of all, ask yourself…

Am I enjoying myself?

Do I like playing poker?

These are the 2 most important questions.

If you can answer yes to these, then it almost doesn’t matter if you’re losing money at poker, you just need to limit yourself to stakes low enough so that the funds used to play aren’t causing a problem in your personal finances.  There are games on-line & in casinos for every budget.

A very interesting debate is currently taking place on twitter & in blogs between 2 of the best players in Ireland, David Lappin & John O’Shea. The issue of Bankroll Management is at the heart of it, how much of the available money to play poker should you be investing at one time, or over a specific series of games. David described this to me once as “dreamers” & “cowards”. David is the coward by his own admission, he believes the best approach is low variance, risk avoidance. I’m inclined to agree.

The blogs are here

http://rocshot.com/lappin/216-crazy-like-a-fox/

http://poker.boylepoker.com/online_poker/countering-lappin/

Had I won in Nottingham, I would have been a dreamer & taking a shot for the WSOP main event.  I didn’t, so I’m not.

 


 

 

Is it morally and ethically alright to try to encourage new players in to poker when 96% are not going to profit from it long term.

For me, the answer is yes, as long as they enjoy it.

It’s not an easy way to make money, but it is an enjoyable way to try.

I don’t have a problem with sponsored pros & ambassadors making newcomers feel welcome and making poker a positive experience for them.

In a recent blog Vicky Coren Mitchell despaired when she was being her usual chatty self at a game in the WSOP, someone said “Don’t talk to her. She’s a pro, she’s just trying to get information to exploit you.”

http://www.victoriacoren.com/main/blog/archive/two_travellers_skip_vegas

That made me sad to hear that said. Poker needs to be enjoyable, for amateurs & pros alike. Whether I’m winning or losing, I want the people I’m spending time with to have enjoyed my company. I know I grate on a few of them and not everyone wants a chatty table, some people are there to work, not to have a good time. Fair play. I’d recommend doing both, if you can.

 

I will never be a professional player, poker will never be my full time job. I already have one of those looking after this guy.

WSOP Gordon

And thanks to poker, we get to have a nicer life.

Thanks for reading and remember, play on PokerStars (© Stapes 2014)

 

Edited to add a blog by Daniel Negreanu on the very same subject

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-journal.php?subaction=showfull&id=1404430849&archive=&start_from=&ucat=&#038;

 

‘The Plan’ – How I attacked a final table like no one before.

My name’s William Elliot.  I recently final tabled the £1,100 buy in UKIPT Nottingham, finishing 4th from a starting field of over 1,200 players, for the biggest score of my poker life, £67,000.

William Elliot

 ‘Big Willie’ Apparently – A Man With A Plan!

‘The Plan’ was to bully a table of professional poker players into submission, while I picked up all the blinds & antes.  My chip lead and having position on the most dangerous players, who had medium stacks, made this a fantastic opportunity for me to do something a bit out of the ordinary.

The edge some of these players had over me also meant it was not in my interests to play a conventional game of poker.  More often than not, the superior skills they had meant they would win.

Recognising the level of your own ability is one of the most important things in poker, playing advanced, intelligent, thoughtful plays against unthinking players won’t be successful, equally trying to compete with some of the best poker minds when you recognise you are playing at a level beneath them, that is also doomed to failure.

My best chance of winning was to stop the best players playing.  This resulted in me executing ‘The Plan’.

The Origins of ‘The Plan’

While learning how to play low stakes poker tournaments online, I realised most people who make final tables are relatively inexperienced in that setting, it’s so rare that you come through hundreds or thousands of players and get that opportunity at the bigger payouts.  So when that opportunity does arise, you want to be as best prepared as possible.  This led me to 6 max hyper turbo sit ‘n’ gos.  I played a huge volume (by my standard) of these to recreate the short stacked, short handed nature of final tables.  I became an entirely break even player at these games but I did learn 1 important lesson, how to play a bubble.  In 6 max, only 2 get paid, so when you are 3 handed if you make a mistake or get unlucky you win nothing.

I started off by just getting the 3rd guy out with no thought to the heads up game I’d be about to play.  This was a mistake, the pay jump from 2nd to 1st is as big as the pay jump from 3rd to 2nd.  2nd place gets a 200% return on the buy in, 1st gets a 400% return.  I realised I needed to be in the best shape possible for this heads up match.  Whenever possible, if I had the chip lead 3 handed, I would always go on an all out attack against the medium stack to get them to fold and blind down, while I was folding to a short stack to keep them alive long enough so that I could have a huge chip lead over the next biggest stack and get to dominate the heads up game when it inevitably came.  This deliberate decision to maintain the bubble and keep picking up chips was the basis of my thinking for ‘The Plan’.

In 2013 I won the Big $22 on PokerStars for $12,000.  When we were down to about 30 players, I was sitting 3rd in chips, with the chip leader 2 to my left, a player called ‘dragonwarior’.  I didn’t get too many premium opening hands but whenever I opened, he 3 bet me, literally 100% of the time, 3 betting any time I bet, the hand strength was never good enough to continue but I was forced to look at my position on the leaderboard and the payouts.  The harsh reality dawned on me, that if I busted now, in 30th, I’d pick up a $178, whereas a 3rd place finish was good for $6,500.

My hands were tied, I literally couldn’t play from this position.  It would have been such a huge mistake for me to get my stack in with anything less than AA and even then there’s an argument for passing that.  An orbit later after opening KJ suited and getting 3 bet again, the very next hand was the fabled AA.  I duly opened again, my friend the chippy now 3 bet shipped 70bb effective, I snap call and my AA holds up vs his KTo.  I go on to win this and bust him 3 handed where ironically he makes a huge ICM mistake, calling off 5 million from a 5.5 million stack with TT vs my AK that I 5 bet overjammed, K on the flop and he busts next hand.  The guy who made it to 2nd only had 700k.  Had my opponent jammed his TT, I would have passed my AK and maintained my 5 million stack and made sure I locked up the $2.8k pay jump before playing heads up for a further $3.2k pay jump.

I owe a debt of gratitude to ‘dragonwarior’, he taught me more about ICM that night than anything I’d read before or since. Thank you sir, that lesson was hugely appreciated and has earned me more than I won that night, many times over.

 

 

DonaldElliot

‘The Plan’ – Donald Elliot Style.

My brother Donald ‘Dode’ Elliot won the £330 side event at Edinburgh UKIPT in season 3.  We constantly bounce strategy and spots off each other, poker makes up a large part of our discussions and we are just desperate to constantly learn & improve our game.

His final table had some amazing players, guys like Steve Watts & Craig Sweden, they both take bad beats & bust early with 3 outers & 2 outers hitting against them, Dode knows he’s dodged a bullet.  Both these guys play at a very high level and they would have been favourites to win but for their misfortune.  The chip leader at the table appeared to just be sitting out and waiting for players to bust and this gives Dode the opportunity to take control and dominate the table, executing his version of ‘The Plan’, stealing blinds, busting players and eventually taking the chip lead.  He goes on to win and I see a clear example of how to play power poker, the massive reward for winning and how absolutely not to play a big stack.  A complete wasted opportunity for the guy who made the final table with the chip lead.  He laddered up fine but was never in contention to win.

 

 

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‘The Plan’ Experiment 1

I won the Scottish Poker Series in Edinburgh last August for £12,000.  I made the final table 2nd in chips but with position on the chip leader, 2 to my right.  A flurry of big hands early saw me take the chip lead but I had to tread carefully as, at the table, I had 2 of the best young players in Scotland Mudasser ‘Makka’ Hussain, an absolute bawse of a player, & Kyle Maguire, who’d just come 3rd in the Sunday Million on stars the week before.

The edge these guys have over me ability wise is substantial, they are phenomenally good players.  Fortunately I kept getting good hands and good flops and I kept chipping up.  A few bust outs and a sick flip busted Makka and we are now 4 handed, me with the chip lead, Kyle Maguire out of position to me with a healthy 2nd in chips and 2 short stacks to my left.

My experience of the bubble situation in 6 max hypers meant I knew I had to get Kyle chipped down substantially to give me a decent chance before we played heads up.  So I execute ‘The Plan’.  He can’t get to the blinds of the short stacks without going through me, I was 3 betting my entire range vs him because it would have been a huge mistake for him to risk his stack now and lose thousands in equity.  If a short stack opened and he 3 bet, I’m now 4 betting him, again with my entire range.  He inevitably has to pass all but the top 1% of his range.  Anything else would have been a mistake.  He has no choice but to tick the sit out box.

I continue to bully the table.  Eventually I make a mistake in 4 betting against him and not realising just how much damage I’d done to his stack, when he now shoves and I get the count I realise, the plan had worked, he is amongst the short stacks and I have a commanding lead.  I’m getting over 2/1 to call him with my KJ, he later told me he had JJ.  I fold so as not to risk doubling up my most dangerous opponent and get him back in the game.  I then run a sick bluff with 23 off into his KK on an AQQxx board, and I feel he is beaten and battered, eventually we bust the other 2 and faced with a heads up neither of us were particularly keen on, we chop it reflecting my 2/1 chip lead and Kyle graciously gives up the trophy.  The guy is an absolute bawse, I can have the trinkets and the glory, he’s all about the #wages

‘The Plan’ worked.  Extreme abuse of ICM situations let me pick up so many uncontested chips, I was able to stroll to a win.  I played the spot hard, my cards were irrelevant, having a solid strategy and executing it well, really paid off.  I didn’t need to win a flip or be on the right sight of a cooler, I’d moved beyond the cards dictating the outcome.  It was quite a revelation.

 

 

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The Downswing

After a great year last year, online and live, for a recreational player, I started this year with optimism, alas, I bubbled 4 out of 5 live tournies with another run of huge bubbles in online satellites.  All this missed cash was worth about $10k, which was massive at the level I was playing at, added to that, my bankroll was needed to help out a friend with a loan.  This was unavoidable but it left me with virtually no funds to play.  So I didn’t for a few months.  I still had the passion and followed the game relentlessly but playing was limited.  That was difficult to take and it looked like 2014 would be a very quiet poker year.
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During this time of sparse playing, I encountered a few extreme ICM bubble situations and engage in conversation with the ICM master, Dara ‘Doke’ O’Kearney.  One of the nicest guys & wisest poker minds around.  Along with the other lads in ‘The Firm’, they are crushing poker just now.  They dominate UKIPT leaderboards and they are incredibly tolerant of excitable fanboys who constantly pester them.  Thanks guys.  With Dara’s wisdom, I was helped to see clearer the mistakes people make and how to exploit those mistakes and even more so, how to exploit people ‘unwilling’ to make those mistakes.  To execute ‘The Plan’ well, you need intelligent players who recognise the difficulty of their situation and avoid making the mistakes.

 

 

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The Upswing & ‘The Plan’ Experiment 2

April arrived with a really good score.  I won the Hot $22 for $4.2k, a turbo game that saw me make the final table 2nd in chips.  Average stacks were only 15bb so whoever dominated the table was likely to win.  This looked like a great spot to execute ‘The Plan’.

I played 2 hands and dropped to 9th in chips, it was now going to be really difficult to do anything.  Sigh…  Then within an orbit I get a few nice hands, KK>A8, and AA>KK vs the chip leader.  That was fortunate.  Now I’m the chip leader and ‘The Plan’ is back on.  I now go on to dominate the table, hoover up all the blinds and antes, get a little lucky with 2 & 3 outers vs short stack jams, but from my AA hand to the win, I pick up 80% of the pots.  Most of the 20% I don’t pick up are heads up.  I run over the table and they just have to let me while trying to outlast each other.

I now have a solid template for how to play as an abusive big stack at final tables.

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Not long after, I qualify for Nottingham UKIPT, when I spot a good bit of overlay in a 3 seat guaranteed satellite.  The Irish Open was running, no Irish regs, and a lot of the other regs were between EPT San Remo & EPT Monte Carlo.  This is a great time for players to play sats.

This is likely to incur a terrible wrath form the poker gods, but when I win my seat for £162, it was a bitter sweet result, I get 2 outered 3 times on the final table. AA<77, 44<22 & 99<77.  FML #WhenWillitEnd😉

UKIPT Nottingham Days 1-3

These play perfectly, value hands are regularly made and paid off, very few moves required, chipped up steady, coasted across the bubble safely, again more value hands and more value given from mistakes of others.  Other than playing a patient solid disciplined game, I can’t take much credit for anything special.  As you need to do in poker tournaments, I ran good and I didn’t make any mistakes, on the right side of all the  coolers, my tournament life never at risk once.  Only 1 bad beat given to 3 outer Joeri Zandvliet, a fantastic player who would have been a serious problem if I hadn’t got lucky.

I make the unofficial final table of 9, the seat draw locked in, while on the break my good friend Feargal Nealon & Alan Brown point out how good my spot is and that I can really accumulate chips here.  Alas, the unofficial final table only lasts 1 hand but the seed of an idea has been planted…

 

UKIPT Nottingham Final Table – Executing ‘The Plan’

 

I start as chip leader with 5.6 million of the 24 million chips in play, to my direct right is Ryan Spittles, a fantastic player with 3m, 2 to his right is Juan Benito, 2nd in chips with 4.3m.  These are the guys I’m targeting.  Other players are dangerous but they don’t have many chips.  I have these 2 marked as the most dangerous players to me, I need to stop them accumulating chips and competing against me.  If they open, they will be 3 bet with my entire range.  I’m relying on the short stacks to keep folding and hoping to ladder up, I’m relying on the medium stacks to avoid large pots with tournament life implications vs me, I’m also aware I need to do most of the damage in the first hour, because when these guys see the hands on the livestream, an hour later, I will have a problem getting away with it any more.

It begins… I win the first pot with little resistance, next Ryan Spittles picks up a real hand, AK, my plan still isn’t clear to Ryan so he when I 3 bet him, he elects to call & play out a small pot, we both miss the flop, my aggression takes it down.  Then the 3rd hand, then the 4th.   Juan opens a real hand ATss, I 3 bet my 44, a 952 flop and my aggression takes it down, with only minor resistance.

It is now becoming clear to the table what I am doing, I assure Juan I had a pair, we had a discussion the previous day about integrity, that poker is a sport for gentlemen, I remind Juan of this, he is reassured.  My plan continues.  2 orbits later, where I have won maybe 14 of the first 16 hands played, half the table is frozen in fear.  But others are failing to adapt and still opening hands they aren’t willing to play big pots with.  I was astounded that people were still raising and folding to my aggression after 2 orbits of this abuse.

Then Duncan, the wildcard, he wasn’t about to let me run away with this and took a stand.  We play out a hand where he opened 55, I 3 bet with A7, he calls and we see a flop of 889.  He checks, I c-bet and he check raises for about 40% of his stack.  I knew Duncan’s play well from watching the Isle of Man final table, I saw this move often, regulalry with complete air.  This was the pivotal moment, if I let this stand, then ‘The Plan’ is finished.  I’m pretty sure he never has an 8 or a 9 here, but I thought he probably had a better A than me, 55 was stronger than I expected, but the hands were almost irrelevant.  This was pure alpha male aggression, like stags rutting.  I could take the hit if I was wrong that I could get him to fold, but stamping my authority on him was so important, he’d now made himself my most dangerous opponent at the table by fighting back, I had to put him in his place.  I jam all in and he reluctantly tank folds and is clearly steaming.  He was pretty sure I had nothing and his play should have worked, but he ran into someone more stubborn than himself.  A stubbornness that I’m sure wouldn’t have any negative implications later, oh no… lol.

‘The Plan’ continues.  Another orbit and I’m still picking up 70% of pots.

I have a hand where I open Q9 and get jammed on by Trevor for 13bb.  I got some criticism on twitter for not calling this jam when I was so clearly priced in.  I agree entirely that under normal circumstances, this is always a call with the price I was getting.  However, for ‘The Plan’ to continue to work, I need the next exit prize to be as small as possible, so that when I tangled with the medium stacks, their tourney life would always be at risk with the most severe consequence possible, they’d be out in 8th with only £20k.  Busting players was very much against the interests of ‘The Plan’.  Folding Q9 was the right play for what I was doing.

So much so that if Trevor in seat 1, who started as the short stack, if he’d blinded away to 6bb and it was folded to me in the small blind of his big blind, I should be giving him a walk to keep him away from the critical zone.  I would have folded AA vs him in that situation.  Busting him and picking up his 6bb which then freed up the table to play back at me was the worst possible result.  Keeping him alive so I could apply maximum pressure and hoover up 12bb in an orbit from the medium stacks was always going to be much more profitable for me.

Folding Q9 and keeping Trevor alive was part of ‘The Plan’.  Busting players was not.  At least, not yet.

Duncan, Duncan, Duncan.  In a flurry of hands in a single orbit, Duncan busts 3 players, Jamming 30bb with 44>AQ, calling off a large part of his stack with QJ>A7 and then playing out a 70bb pot with 99>AK.  All these flip chips go to Duncan who has position on me, the bustouts increase the guaranteed prizes for the remaining players and they are freed up to play back at me.

The whole dynamic of the table has changed and Duncan is now in charge.

‘The Plan’ is over.

Duncan has thwarted it. I heard him say at one point, “I have to take these gambles because I’m getting no other spots”.  I forced him to take some high variance lines, arguably ICM suicide.  But his gambles worked out, it seemed he was the only guy with the guts to fight back and he absolutely deserved to go on to win for giving it a go.  Fair play sir, you earned that win.

Adapting To Play After ‘The Plan’

My own game now became, passive, small ball, pot controlling, relying on hands and good flops.  These didn’t come

I had some fantastic run good in the 3 days before, so no complaints, but on that final table, I was card dead.  I made a total of 3 pairs with flops, folding 1 that was check raise bluffed by Angelo.  Premium starting hands were limited to 1 premium ace, the AJss which got outflopped by Duncan and 5 baby pocket pairs, 44 twice, 33 twice, and 22 once.

Had I played a conventional game with those cards, I can’t imagine finishing higher than 5th or 6th.  ‘The Plan’ probably earned me an extra £20k or £30k.

Strategies Vs ‘The Plan’

I thought Juan coped well, by shutting down completely.  It was amazing to me that people were still raising into me with sub 20bb stacks, with hands they weren’t willing to call off when I re-jammed.  I was re-jamming for maximum pressure wanting the fold, but I expected some to calls, they didn’t.

Duncan probably adapted best, Jamming his stack and putting the pressure back on me.

The stacks who kept raise folding and bleeding away chips, I thought that was the worst thing they could do with me as an aggresive maniac at the table.

This isn’t intended as a criticism of the players at the table, I literally wouldn’t know how to play a medium stack against this kind of play either, other than to wait for QQ/KK/AA and set a trap.  By then the bully has chipped up so much doubling you won’t dent his stack.

The players had there hands tied by the situation I imposed.  They couldn’t do anything about it, they were passengers in ‘Big Willies’ car as he looked certain to drive them over the edge of a cliff.

How do you play back against that strategy?  I would love to hear people’s thoughts.

 

‘The Plan’ saw me double my stack without a showdown.  A final table of experienced professional players was terrorised.  people who thought they had a good idea of how I played poker were gobsmacked.  My play was ballsy & fearless but ultimatley wreckless.  My only regret was that I wasn’t at home to watch it on the livestream.  It must have been an amzing spectacle.

 

I hope I entertained those who watched, I certainly enjoyed carrying out this brazen larceny.  I give full kudos the gutsy Duncan who spoilt it for me, you sir have got balls.  Much respect to you for taking me on.  You thoroughly deserved your win.  Congrats sir.